пятница, 2 марта 2012 г.

Obama's early reelection bid isn't just about the money

President Obama's decision to begin his 2012 reelection campaignMonday is about much more than raising money. It is anacknowledgment by his team that the grass-roots army that helpedpropel Obama to the White House needs repair and rejuvenation.

That corps of volunteers defined the character and personality ofObama's first run for the White House. His candidacy was in manyways an organic movement, which sprang to life in 2007 and gatheredmomentum through the course of the campaign. Since then it hasatrophied.

Obama advisers know that whether he is reelected will depend onmany things, some of which are out of their control. What they alsoknow is that a victory will rely in part on their ability toreenergize those volunteers, to stitch together the unusualcoalition of African Americans, Latinos, young people, women andcollege-educated white voters who backed Obama in 2008. That iswithin their control.

Monday's headlines focused on the president's "billion-dollarcampaign" and the lengths to which campaign manager Jim Messina,among others, has begun wooing big donors and setting largefundraising targets.

The desire to start raising money early should not beunderestimated. Obama was extraordinarily successful bringing insmall donations in 2008 via the Internet.

He is unlikely to match that again, which means he must raisemore money the old-fashioned way - through contributions of $2,500per donor and bundled by a massive fundraising team that already hasits marching orders. That money will fund the Obama operation andthe campaign's television advertising. The president will also helpraise money in larger amounts for the Democratic National Committeeto fund its role in the campaign.

Money is also on the minds of Obama's team because of what theRepublicans did in the 2010 midterm campaigns. Outside conservativegroups raised tens of millions of dollarsfor independent expenditureads in competitive Senate and House races. They are gearing up foran even bigger push in 2012.

Four years ago, the Obama operation discouraged such independentexpenditure organizations on the Democratic side, preferring to keepcontrol of as much of the campaign message as possible. They havechanged their minds and will welcome the creation of an organizationto shoulder that responsibility for 2012 with help from close allieswho worked on the 2008 campaign and later the White House.Butstarting early is as much because of the need to organize as it isto raise money. All anyone needs to do is read the short e-mailmessage and watch the two-minute video that Obama's advisers e-mailed to supporters Monday.

Starting to raise money now also will preclude other Democraticorganizations - the House and Senate campaign committees, forexample - from soaking up all the available federally regulatedmoney.

So, for all the obvious reasons, money was crucial in startingthe campaign early.

"We won in 2008 largely on the strength of an energetic group ofAmericans out there who really were invested in this and we're goingto need that again, no question about it," said David Axelrod, thechief strategist for the reelection campaign. "It takes time tobuild."

Five people are featured in the new Obama campaign video: Ed, anolder white man from North Carolina; Gladys, a Hispanic woman fromNevada; Katherine, a white woman from Colorado; Mike, a 2012 first-time voter from New York; and Alice, an African American woman fromMichigan. Geographically or demographically, they are the targetsfor Obama's campaign.

Without a huge turnout of minorities, another surge among votersyounger than 30, and good margins among the minority of white voterswho are in Obama's coalition - particularly independents whodefected between 2008 and 2010 - the president's chances of winningcould be compromised. Events might break in his favor, in which casereelection could be easier than it looks now. But no smart campaignprepares on the basis of best-case scenarios.

Geographically, every state represented by the five people in thevideo is a battleground, with the exception of New York, aDemocratic haven. Republicans might scoff at the idea that Obama cancarry North Carolina again. Colorado and Nevada could be moredifficult this time, as could states not represented in the video,such as Indiana and Virginia. But Obama's team will not start thecampaign with a constricted view of the electoral map.

While Republicans are battling for their nomination, the Obamateam will be building robust organizations in every one of thoseanticipated battleground states. It believed it could not waitlonger to start that process.

Another line from the president's e-mail to supporters istelling: "In the coming days, supporters like you will begin forginga new organization that we'll build together in cities and townsacross the country. . . . We'll start by doing somethingunprecedented: coordinating millions of one-on-one conversationsbetween supporters across every single state, reconnecting oldfriends, inspiring new ones to join the cause and readying ourselvesfor next year's fight."

One of the requirements Obama established at the very start ofhis first run for the White House was that it would be bottom-up,not top-down - a reflection of the community organizer-turned-politician.

Out of that directive, Obama's organizers experimented with howto build an operation. The widely heralded organization in Iowa wascreated differently than the equally effective organization in SouthCarolina. For the general election, Obama's team blended bestpractices. At the heart, however, remains the belief that person-to-person contact - lots of it - is the key to mobilizing voters andthat no two states will be organized the same way.

That ethic continues to infuse the reelection campaign. Certainlyit will be difficult to re-create the energy and excitement of 2008because it was unique in so many ways. Beyond that, Obama hasdisappointed many of those early followers with his choices inoffice. Making them feel good about the president is anotherpriority of the reelection team, and it is arranging listeningsessions among small groups.

When Obama for America morphed into Organizing for America afterthe 2008 campaign, it lacked some of the bite, energy andeffectiveness it once had. Obama's political team found it much moredifficult to mobilize supporters behind legislative battles or evenbehind 2010 Democratic candidates, particularly those who didn'tmake an effort to connect with the Obama operation.

The president's advisers know from experience how long it takesto build a 50-state army in the best of times and how much these arenot the best of times. Much of what Obama's newly minted campaigndoes will not be visible for many months - other than the amount ofmoney raised during the coming quarters of the year. Nor will it beparticularly glamorous.

But the Obama team considers it essential. That's why it isstarting now, even before any serious Republican candidate hasannounced a campaign.

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